T.I.I.N.A. - The Indigenous Innovation Network Agency

## Two Elections. One Opportunity. 2026 is a year of convergence. On 7 November, Aotearoa goes to the polls for the General Election. Throughout the year, iwi across the country are holding or preparing for Post-Settlement Governance Entity (PSGE) elections — the governance bodies that manage Treaty settlements, represent whānau, and steward collective assets worth billions. These are not separate conversations. How Māori vote in both arenas will shape whether our communities are led by people with vision, capability, and accountability — or by people who are simply well-known. ## The Popularity Trap In both government and iwi elections, there is a persistent pattern: the most recognisable name wins. The person who is seen the most, speaks the loudest, or carries the most whakapapa connections often takes the seat — regardless of whether they have the skills, experience, or strategic thinking to deliver results. This is not a criticism of those individuals. It is a criticism of the system that rewards visibility over substance. When we vote for popularity, we get governance by personality. When we vote strategically, we get governance by capability. The difference matters. It matters when Treaty settlement assets are being managed. It matters when iwi are negotiating with government. It matters when housing, health, education, and economic development decisions are being made on behalf of thousands of whānau. ## What Is a Voting Strategy? A voting strategy is not about picking a side. It is about understanding the system and using your vote to achieve a specific outcome. In the General Election, this means understanding: - **The two-vote system.** Your electorate vote chooses your local MP. Your party vote determines the composition of Parliament. These are two different levers. - **The Māori roll.** If you are on the Māori roll, you vote in a Māori electorate. This directly determines who holds the Māori seats and whether those seats go to representatives who will fight for Māori interests — or simply occupy a seat. - **Coalition arithmetic.** New Zealand uses MMP. No single party governs alone. The parties that form government are determined by which combinations can reach 61 seats. Your party vote is your most powerful tool for shaping that equation. In PSGE elections, a voting strategy means: - **Assessing candidates on governance competency**, not just whakapapa or community profile. - **Understanding what the PSGE actually needs** — commercial acumen, legal expertise, financial literacy, or community development experience — and voting for the candidates who fill those gaps. - **Coordinating as a voting bloc.** When whānau vote together for a slate of capable candidates, they shift the composition of the board. When they vote individually for whoever they recognise, the result is fragmented and often ineffective governance. ## The Coalition Government: What Is at Stake The current National-ACT-NZ First coalition has pursued an agenda that has systematically rolled back Māori gains: - **The Māori Health Authority** — scrapped. - **Māori wards** — subjected to local referendums, making them vulnerable to populist opposition. - **He Puapua** — halted entirely. - **UNDRIP** — explicitly rejected as having any binding legal effect. - **Te reo Māori** — deprioritised in government departments. - **Māori Land Court oversight of PSGEs** — being stripped, creating governance uncertainty. This is not a government that is neutral on Māori issues. It is a government that has made deliberate choices to reduce Māori autonomy, dismantle Māori-specific institutions, and centralise power away from iwi and hapū. The question for Māori voters in 2026 is not whether they are unhappy. It is whether they are prepared to vote in a way that actually changes the outcome. ## The Strategy to Disestablish the Coalition Disestablishing a coalition government does not require a landslide. It requires precision. Under MMP, the current coalition holds power because National, ACT, and NZ First together reached 61 seats. To break that coalition, Māori voters need to contribute to a result where those three parties cannot form a majority. Here is how: **1. Maximise the Māori electorate seats.** Every Māori electorate seat won by Te Pāti Māori or a Labour candidate is a seat taken from the coalition’s potential allies. These seats do not come from the party vote — they are won on the ground, by turnout. High turnout in Māori electorates is the single most important tactical lever. **2. Use the party vote strategically.** The party vote determines the overall composition of Parliament. Māori voters who want to disestablish the coalition should use their party vote for the party most likely to form an alternative government — and that means looking at the polls, not just personal loyalty. If Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori can collectively reach 61 seats, the coalition falls. Every party vote for a party that cannot reach the 5% threshold is a wasted vote in that equation. **3. Get on the Māori roll.** The Māori roll is not symbolic. It determines whether Māori electorates have the numbers to be competitive. Every Māori voter who sits on the general roll instead of the Māori roll weakens the collective voice. The Māori Electoral Option is open — use it. **4. Enrol and turn up.** In 2023, Māori voter turnout was significantly lower than the national average. Non-voters do not change governments. Every person who stays home is a vote for the status quo. ## PSGE Elections: Govern Yourselves Well The same discipline applies to iwi governance. PSGEs manage assets, deliver services, and represent iwi in negotiations with the Crown. The calibre of the people on those boards determines whether settlements grow or stagnate, whether whānau see real benefits, and whether iwi can hold the government to account. Vote for people who can read a balance sheet. Vote for people who understand governance, not just politics. Vote for people who will challenge management, ask hard questions, and put whānau outcomes ahead of personal ambition. And if your iwi does not have enough capable candidates standing — that is a problem the community needs to solve before the election, not after. ## The Bottom Line Your vote is not a gift. It is a weapon. Used carelessly, it changes nothing. Used strategically, it changes everything. In 2026, Māori have the opportunity to reshape both national government and iwi governance. But only if we stop voting on autopilot and start voting with a plan. The coalition government is not inevitable. Poor iwi governance is not inevitable. Both can be changed — but only by voters who understand the system and use it. We do not adapt who we are to fit the room. We change the room.

Your Vote Is Your Weapon: Strategic Voting for Māori in 2026

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